Main surge of coronavirus patients in North Wales expected in mid-May, says health board – CMO says it ‘seems less likely’ today

Betsi Cadwaladr health board is expecting the main surge of Covid-19 patients to hit in mid-May.

The forecast was released as part of the minutes for a remote video meeting of Betsi’s health board which took place on April 15.

The minutes included a section on the board’s response to the Covid-19 pandemic presented by executive director of primary and community services Chris Stockport.

The board heard there were “differing models” on when the “peak surge” would hit North Wales but there would a “higher degree of certainty and confidence” about it in the coming weeks.

The peak of the current Covid-19 outbreak is “broadly expected in mid May” although members were assured that currently BCUHB was maintaining capacity within critical care.

However in a Welsh Government press conference today chief medical officer for Wales, Dr Frank Atherton, seemed to disagree when asked about there being a peak in North-West Wales between mid-May and the end of the month.

I agree entirely with Richard. This is only a minority now, & I’m grateful to those doing the right thing and staying at home, but those STILL (unbelievably!) ignoring the instruction must understand that it’s not acceptable. Police are doing a great job, and need proper support. https://t.co/JL2JYhrPqH

— Rhun ap Iorwerth (@RhunapIorwerth) April 30, 2020

In response to a question posed by North.Wales regarding the above tweet, he said: “That was the original assumption that the peak could move around Wales. In fact everybody went into lock down on March 23.

“It seems to me less likely – one should never say never – but it seems less likely that we will see a different curve now in North then in South Wales.”

Elsewhere during the health board meeting there was praise for the community and local industry after it emerged “the provision of Personal Protective Equipment (PPE) continued to be a matter of concern”.

The meeting heard supplies were arriving through the national procurement framework but there had been “a pleasing level of support” from local communities and businesses.

It also emerged there are “challenges around the provision of oxygen” which would mainly affect “step down facilities” when patients were needing intermediate or transitional care.

The Local Democracy Reporting Service understands there had been concerns about provision of oxygen for Ysbyty Enfys Llandudno, at Venue Cymru, due to nationwide shortages of large tank oxygen supplies.

It is believed it would have cost around £1.5m to install a large tank for oxygen to be piped into the facility, with no guarantee of the capacity to fill it. However smaller tanks of oxygen are in good supply.

The Health Service Journal reported problems with hospitals getting expanded oxygen supplies earlier in April and, although there is enough oxygen in the system, the key was getting it in the correct format.

The meeting heard work on getting the three Rainbow Hospitals in Bangor, Deeside and Llandudno remained on target.

In addition: “Consistent progress was being made with recruitment and a model was in place for the staffing of the temporary hospitals and to respond to expected surge capacity requirements on existing sites.”

Mr Stockport’s report highlighted 9% of the board’s 18,000 staff were off work in mid-April, with “the majority” due to self-isolation.

The board heard a “range of measures” had been put in place to promote and maintain staff well-being during the pandemic.

The report showed Emergency Department attendance had dropped by 50% and around 1,000 staff had been redeployed to other roles.

By Jez Hemming – Local Democracy Reporter