Posted: Mon 21st Sep 2020

New modelling shows “Reasonable Worst Case” of what could happen for second Welsh wave

North Wales news and information
This article is old - Published: Monday, Sep 21st, 2020

New modelling has shown what could happen in Wales as a second wave of the pandemic spreads.

The modelling has been released via the most recent Technical Advisory Cell (TAC) documents. The TAC is a conduit and interpretation group, interpreting UK Scientific Advisory Group for Emergencies (SAGE) outputs into a Welsh context, relay relevant information and questions from Welsh Government to SAGE as well as feed the information to groups such as Local Resilience Fora.

They explain that the ‘Reasonable Worst Case’ (RWC) scenario is a way of considering the most challenging outcomes that could reasonably occur as a result of COVID-19 in Wales, “It is a not a forecast or a prediction of what is most likely to happen, but provides important information to help the government prepare and respond in a range of different scenarios”.

On Friday First Minister referred to the then unpublished new modelling that does stress it is hopefully not likely to happen, “It is important to reinforce that this is a deliberately pessimistic scenario in terms of challenging public services; it is not what we think will happen. Public services, employers, communities and the public in Wales are continuing to work together to prevent spread of the virus and prevent hospital admissions and deaths while recognising that COVID-19 control measures can also cause harm.”

“The Swansea model shows the next peak to occur between December 2020 and January 2021. This graph shows hospital admissions but other outcomes will show a similar shaped curve.”

The First Minister said, “We are using expert advice here in Wales, Swansea University has produced modeling, which shows just how serious things could be over this winter.

“Our ability to make a difference in the weeks and months ahead, depends on each and every one of us. Government can advise, government can inform, government can set rules, but only people can act on that advice.

“Working together as we have seen, we can make a difference. We have done it before and We can do it again. It is each one of us who has to act responsibly, and to make the right choices to follow those small measures, which keep us and our loved ones safe.

“We all need to keep our distance from each other when we are out and about. We need to wash our hands often. We need to work from home wherever we can. We need to wear a face covering in indoor public places. We need to follow any restrictions in place locally.

“We need to ask ourselves, not how many people can I meet, but how few people do I need to meet? Because the fewer contacts you have, the safer you will be.”

The Swansea model also includes this table.

The Public Health Wales updates also echoed the First Minister in their daily statements over this weekend, Dr Chris Williams, Incident Director for the Novel Coronavirus (COVID-19) outbreak response at Public Health Wales, said: “We are now seeing a steady increase in cases in many communities across Wales, and our investigations show that many of these have been transmitted due to a lack of social distancing.”

“We are also seeing an increase in the number of people who are seriously ill and have been admitted to hospital with COVID-19.”



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